Prediction for Libya

e Unfortunately the world shows signs of chaos in the 1st quarter of 2011.  Food price is uprising, Japan met major disasters, and middle east is in the process of major change.

Civil war in Libya turns to international intervention this weekend.  For most things in this world, things never turns out to be what people expected or feared.  This is my pessimistic prediction to what is going to happen in Libya in the next 3 months.

1. Gadhafi will try to negotiate, even trying to split the country with the rebels.  But West, especially France will not agree, and they will simply try to help the rebels to get rid of Gadhafi.

2. Gadhafi’s allies and rebels will keep fighting on the ground, with no side can achieve decisive win.

3. There will be some minor lose of western jets, but they will control the air.

4. West will decide to put ground troops in Libya, probably lead by France again, most likely land from the sea to take over all the port cities, likely in May. 

5. Gadhafi will try guerilla war style in the cities if western ground troops try to take over them, and effect will be devastation to the cities and infrastructure.

6. More than 1000 civilians will die and many more will suffer.  In the short term for the next 3 months at least, the intervention will cause more damage to civilians than good.

7. Oil production and output will likely turn into complete stoppage in Gadhafi’s control area.  While rebels controlled oil production will begin to function again, and begin to sell to Europe again, likely happen before May. 

8. In June, Gadhafi’s force looks like will face major defeat, but some thing will happen in this chaotic middle east that might turn to his advantage.  Maybe another civil war inside the region? Just Murphy’s law, everything that can go wrong will go wrong.

Anyway, I’ll pray to all of the people who suffers and hopefully it will turn peace after 3 months.

Just saw the news, Gadhafi will cease file, let’s see what France is going to do and what rebel is going to do…

Update on 8/21/2011:
Looks like Rebel win after 5 months... Finally some good news.